You simply cannot generate reliable emission estimates without accurate data. In fact, I would not hesitate to claim that “Without reliable data, transport emissions forecasting is as good as “fortune telling””. You need to consider the numbers with a pinch of salt or many a times consider the estimates as only numbers!
1. Vehicles
a. No breakdown by mode type and engine technology (e.g. Euro 1 or Euro 2 compliant, etc.)
b. limited data on active vehicle fleet
c. No data on splitting small cars with big cars, MUV’s, LCV’s
d. Isolated surveys to determine age of the vehicles
2. Fuels
a. No fuel split available - gasoline, diesel, alternative fuel
3. Activity
a. No data on urban vs rural share of movement
b. Occupancy – how many people/load
c. Annual surveys and proper methodologies on vehicle-km travelled, passenger-km travelled, and tonnes-km rarely exist
d. Reasonable data on fuel consumption per km travelled on various transport modes. This issue is critical as quoted values from lab testing differs from actual on road values
4. Emission factors
a. lack of locally representative emission factors for existing vehicle fleet
Coming back on the India’s 2007 estimate of 123 million tons in 2007 for an activity information of 99 million vehicles is too low as seen from the below graphic. In fact the estimates of CO2 /vehicles is lesser (1.2) than what researchers have quantified for passenger transport (ratio of 1.5 for passenger vehicles. Including commercial vehicles in estimation would expand this figure to a range of 2 to 4).
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